Farmers in Nigeria anticipate an increase in agricultural production this year, crediting improved security in key food-producing regions for the positive outlook. The development is expected to ease inflation and alleviate the nation’s ongoing cost-of-living crisis.
“We have seen some respite in insecurity and kidnapping. Killings have reduced, especially from mid-2024,” said Sani Danladi, national chairman of the Tomato Growers, Processors, and Marketers Association of Nigeria. Danladi highlighted that the improved security has allowed for a favorable dry season planting period, which, if sustained, will boost food production and lead to lower prices in 2025.
For over a decade, insecurity has severely impacted food production in Nigeria, cutting output by as much as 60% and forcing the country to rely on imports. Between 2020 and 2024, over 1,356 farmers in northern Nigeria lost their lives to banditry, according to an SMB Intelligence report. A 2024 survey by Global Human Rights Nigeria revealed that 24,816 people, including farmers, were killed, and 15,597 were kidnapped during the same period.
However, recent security improvements are offering hope for the agricultural sector. The government’s decision to lift a five-year mining exploration ban in Zamfara, a state with significant agrarian activity, underscores the progress. “The security operatives’ giant strides have led to a notable reduction in insecurity,” said Dele Alake, the mining minister, in a December statement.
Ibrahim Kabiru, national president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), echoed this optimism. He noted that as insecurity abates, more farmers are returning to their fields, but he cautioned that food production faces other challenges. “Insecurity is just one of several factors. Issues like climate change, high input costs, and infrastructure gaps also play significant roles in food crises,” Kabiru said.
While farmers like Amir Idris, an onion grower in Kaduna, expressed optimism about the safer farming conditions, some experts remain cautious. Abiodun Olorundero, managing partner of Prasinos Farms, argued that without substantial investment in irrigation and climate adaptation measures, Nigeria might face the same production challenges as in previous years. “Flooding, drought, and a dependence on rainfall remain unresolved issues,” Olorundero warned.
Despite these concerns, the 2025 outlook offers a glimmer of hope for Nigeria’s agricultural sector. The government’s N826.5 billion budget allocation for agriculture is expected to support smallholder farmers and drive productivity. If security gains are maintained and additional measures are implemented, the country could experience a much-needed rebound in food production, stabilizing prices and reducing economic hardship.
