Nigeria’s food security is under significant strain as production of staple crops like maize, paddy rice, and soybean is set to decline by an average of 13% in 2024, primarily due to skyrocketing fertilizer costs and adverse climate conditions. The AFEX 2024 Wet Season report warns of a 5.6% drop in maize production, which will likely lead to an output of about 11 million metric tons. Similarly, rice production is projected to fall by 2.6%, while soybean may see a decline of 4.8%. These reductions could have major implications on local diets and food costs, particularly for smallholder farmers who constitute the bulk of producers in Nigeria.
Maize, a critical staple for millions, is facing particularly challenging conditions. According to AFEX, the total land under maize cultivation has shrunk by over 3% due to rising production costs, forcing farmers to reduce farm sizes. This, coupled with lower fertilizer application and adverse weather, has pushed maize prices up by nearly 90%, with a metric ton now costing approximately N910,000. Such price increases have had a ripple effect on the cost of chicken feed, doubling it within the past year and driving food prices even higher across markets in Nigeria.
Paddy rice, another staple, is also struggling to meet rising demand as high fertilizer prices discourage farmers from maintaining their usual crop yields. Nigeria’s rice consumption has grown by 25% over the past decade, yet production has struggled to keep up, creating a widening gap that is partially filled by imports. According to Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) data, rice production reached about 8.5 million metric tons in 2022, but is expected to dip slightly to 8.1 million tons in 2024. This shortfall has driven local prices to soar by 123%, with a 50kg bag of parboiled rice costing as much as N130,000 for imported varieties.
Soybean production, integral to Nigeria’s oil market, faces similar challenges. The crop, often called the “king of beans” for its high protein content, requires Single Super Phosphate (SSP) fertilizer, which is in short supply. With SSP prices rising and many farmers forced to use less effective fertilizers, soybean yields are set to decrease by nearly 5%. This drop could impact Nigeria’s capacity to meet domestic demand for edible oils, which are largely derived from soybean.
Climate change further complicates the situation, with prolonged dry spells in the Northeast and flooding in Kaduna and other regions disrupting crop cycles. Extreme weather patterns are increasingly affecting Nigerian agriculture, prompting experts to call for urgent interventions to support farmers through climate-resilient practices and accessible, affordable fertilizers.
As food production costs rise, Nigeria’s rural communities and the urban poor bear the brunt, facing food insecurity and reduced income. Addressing the dual challenges of climate change and input costs is crucial to safeguarding Nigeria’s food security and stabilizing prices in the long term.
